A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks

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Year of publication: 2017

Access: Open access publication

Link: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00073

Organisation(s) / Author(s): Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Bologna, Italy; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Roma, Italy; UK Meteorological Office


A framework for probabilistic hazard assessment of lahars within a multi-hazard environment developed by Tierz et al. (2017) that uses a Bayesian Belief Network model (Multihaz) for lahar triggering, coupled with a dynamic physical model for lahar propagation (LaharFlow). Multihaz is used to estimate the probability of lahars of different volumes occurring given information about regional rainfall, scientific knowledge on lahar triggering mechanisms and probabilistic assessment of available pyroclastic material from tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. LaharFlow propagates the uncertainty and probabilities modeled by Multihaz into hazard footprints of lahars.

The framework is applied to Somma-Vesuviuss (Italy).

Technical considerations

Modelling framework not directly available.


Lahars; triggering hazards; hazard modelling; Bayesian Belief Network

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