A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis to support risk managers

Year of publication: 2022

Access: Open access publication

Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102829

Organisation(s) / Author(s): University of Genoa, Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Italy; King's College London, Department of Geography, UK; CIMA Research Foundation, Italy; IUSS - Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia, Italy.

Description

A conceptual generic framework for multi-hazard impact analysis for the built environment by De Angeli et al., 2022 that takes into account the following multi-hazard interactions; parallel hazards, cascading hazards, disposition alteration, additional hazard potential, coincident triggering, and cyclic triggering. The framework accounts for residual damage and recovery dynamics of the elements at risk.

The five steps of the framework, from event modelling to damage assessment, are:

1. Identification of hazards and their interactions - interaction mechanisms and causal dependencies
2. Multi-hazard modelling - modelling of every single hazard identified / categorises the different types of approaches which are linked to the final risk assessment (Step V)
3. Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution of the hazards and their impact - involves exposure, vulnerability and impact assessment
4. Identification of the impact interaction types - i. Spatial-temporal overlapping impact; ii. Temporal (but not spatial) overlapping impact; iii. Spatial overlapping impact (with residual and subsequent damage); iv. Independent single hazards impacts
5. Multi-hazard risk or impact assessment - considers impact as the tangible direct physical damage to assets. Note that the impact assessment is not quantitative.

The framework was developed from a critical literature review, stakeholder engagement and expert judgement.

The authors envisage this framework as a tool for risk management and reduction, with the potential to: "(i) define checklists and standards operating procedures for decision-makers, which can be used as a guide to performing a comprehensive and complete multi-hazard risk impact assessment, (ii) narrow future research priorities for funding and time allocation in evaluating multi-hazard risk, (iii) integrate multi-hazard aspects into disaster risk management international guidelines." De Angeli et al., 2022

Technical considerations

Not applicable

Keywords

multi-hazard risk; multi-hazard impacts; risk management